For the first time in months, I am the only one at home. Fisher and Jackson are taking the ACT and Cathy and Laura are at a dance competition in Birmingham. So as I sit in our deserted house I’m trying to figure out possible ways that the Predator’s hockey season does not end in less than a week. I’m not finding many combinations that have a happy ending for Predator fans.

I’m not surprised that we lost to Columbus and Chicago on the road and I’m pleased that we played competitive hockey in both games in spite of all the injuries. What is surprising to me is that St Louis, Anaheim and now Minnesota are not struggling down the stretch.

In February when the Predators were starting to play better, the pessimists were saying that there were too many teams in the mix for the Preds to make it to the top eight. After overcoming the dire predictions and making it as high as seventh, the wisdom of the original statement is starting to show as we have fallen to ninth place.

There are three points that separate seventh and tenth place in the standings that change nightly. If you look at the graphical NHL Playoff Race site and the SportsClubStats, it becomes clear that the Predators need to win their last four games to get to the 99% chance level of being in the playoffs. If they don’t, our only chance for the post-season is having two of the other three teams collapse. One probably will, but two would be unlikely.

Of the other three, Minnesota probably has the best shot at stumping their toes as they have games at Detroit and Columbus. The flip side is that they can stick a nail in the Pred’s heart when they host the Predators in the season finale next Friday. They also play the slumping Stars at home. Their computer odds are only slightly worse than the Preds at 19%.

St Louis will have to lose a game even if we win our last four as they are a point ahead in the standings. Unfortunately, they have been been on a roll behind former Pred Chris Mason and winning games that they aren’t expected to win. They have Columbus at home and road games against teams two teams with no sign of life (Dallas, Colorado) and a Phoenix team that has actually played fairly well lately. SCS has them at a only a 30% chance of failing to make the playoffs.

Anaheim only has an outside chance (15%) of missing the playoffs. They have a home and away with the Sharks and a home game with Dallas and a road trip to Phoenix. They also have a two point bulge over the Preds and are the hottest team in the league going 8-2 in the last ten.

All that being said, the Predators have two home games with Columbus and Chicago and a road trip to Detroit and Minnesota. The Preds have a 26.5% chance of making the playoffs with the computer projecting that 2-2 is the greatest outcome probability for the last four games. The Predators basically will need to play their best week of hockey of the year and pray that Dallas and Phoenix decide to get on the stick and help out the cause.

Ever optimistic about our chances, I’m still not ready to throw in the towel. Pekka Rinne may be enough to keep us close in every game where an odd bounce here or there can make a difference. After the last two losses we are due a few. Also, every time the Preds are counted out and facing life support, Barry Trotz manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat at just the right time.

It all starts tonight when Steve Mason and the Columbus Blue Jackets roll into the Sommet Center for a 7:00 p.m. puck drop. Everyone needs to load up on lucky trinkets for the team and also for themselves as the players will give the “shirts off their backs” to lucky fans. See you there!

[Source: PredsOnTheGlass.com]

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